Economic Data and Growth

In October, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.4% annual gain, up slightly from 1.3% in September. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 1.9%, down from 2.0% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 1.3% year-over-year, down from 1.4%. Among the 20 cities, Chicago posted the highest annual gain at 5.8%, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 4.1%. Tampa again recorded the lowest annual return, with prices falling 4.2%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index ticked down 0.2% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both decreased in October, declining 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

High mortgage rates and inflation have begun to overwhelm home price resilience as affordability has slowed demand. Before seasonal adjustment, 16 of the 20 cities saw prices drop in October. The Midwest and Northeast markets continue to sustain growth as broader conditions across the country soften. Meanwhile, in addition to Tampa, the Sun Belt continued declining, including Phoenix (down 1.5%), Dallas (down 1.5%) and Miami (down 1.1%).

Following the weakest growth in more than two years in September, a new equilibrium has emerged within the housing market. Short-term momentum has stalled, and persistent affordability challenges have resulted in minimal price appreciation and declines in some regions.